Friday, 20 January 2012

Enosis v Ermis has irregular betting patterns

I'm kinda not sure what should happen here.

So tomorrows game in the Cypriot Division 1 which takes place between Enosis and Ermis basically has irregular betting patterns.

And I'm not meaning minor irregular betting patterns, I mean great big ones.

Let's take a look at the data


Now there is a lot wrong with this picture.

What you are looking at this betting price/volume for the match-odd of the enosis vs ermis game on the 21st of January 2012 on Betfair.

This screenshot was taken at 23:55 on the 20th of January 2012

What's wrong with this picture

1) £69,602 is an extraordinary amount to be placed for a Cypriot 1st Division game the night before a match. This is well outside the bounds of normality

2) Of that £69,602 matched, £69,522 pounds of that money is bet on Enosis winning

Wow, you think Enosis must be an amazing team. What a record they must have.

Ermmmmm.

Their last 6 games home record is LDLDLW and their last 6 games is LLLLDL

Wow, They have won a game in 6 matches and only won 1 home game in 6. Errr, does that justify odds of 1.2.
Maybe, I'm being too harh, maybe ermis is terrible.

DLLLLW for all games, LLWLLL

Ermmm, not much better than Enosis.

If the odds are fair then I guess then there is serious value in the odds. (Bet the draw / Bet Ermis win) or Lay the Enonis Win.

However the assumption is that the odds are fair and the result of this game is not pre-determined.

Is this my imagination? I don't think so. Betfair has suspended bets on the match. Other bookmakers are not listing this game. Co-incidence maybe? Or maybe they monitor games the same way that I do.

However the thing is. What do you do about the match?

We know there is irregular betting prior to the match. We suspect the match is a fix. However it can't be proved. Maybe it's a mad-bot on betfair. Maybe the match has been fixed. I dunno.

What do you do about that game? We know the game is a potential fix? Maybe the game will now be played fairly? Where is the fix (if there is one). Is it the officials? Is it the players? Who knows?

Can't really change the officials as that would set a bad precedent. Don't like the ref. Bet large on the game, watch the officials change. Difficult problem isn't it.

As I said the teams and officials could be innocent and it may just be a mad bot? Or some crazy mathematician.

Opens a few questions doesn't it. The thing is. I wonder what I will think of the result tomorrow.

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