This is one is really a mental note for me to try and understand what is driving these odds. I haven't done the Math on this one but it doesn't make sense.
East Stirling is at home. Montrose is away.
We know that in general there is statistical home advantage in football. In general, i.e. home teams win more often than away teams. There is an advantage to playing at home.
Now East Stirling (home) is bottom of the league (10th position) on ten points.
Montrose is 7th in the league on 22 points.
East Stirling home record is LDWDLD and recent record for all mathces is LLLLDL
It's not great they are on 10 points after all.
Montrose's away record is DWLDDL and recent record for all matches is WLDWLD. Now this is a significantly better record but they are not exactly strong finishers.
I haven't done the math on the odds but there seemed to have been value there.
East Stirling - 1.73
Montrose - 4.8
Draw - 4.1
For an away team in the bottom half of the league without form for winning, the odds seems a little good. I guess I would have been tempted by the draw.
Now on Betfair for this game, 25,556 has been matched. A little high for a Scottish Division 3 game. I don't think this is match-fixing but rather someone with a strange system involving bottom of the league teams. However 25,556 is quite a high amount.
Even worse, of that 25,556. 23,461 is bet on Montrose. Leaving 1,400 matched on East Stirling and 695 on the draw.
I think maybe the draw has been over-looked here.
I wonder how this game will turn out
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