Floorball: Umea City v Sirius - Value

I really know nothing about Floorball. I didn't even know it was a sport until about 20 minutes ago.

In sweden tomorrow, there is a floorball match between Umea City and Sirius.

Why am I caring? Well, I found it odd that there was basically £1000 worth of betting on this match. Doesn't sound like a lot right?

Ermmm, it's a grand on a sport I've never heard of and nobody else is betting on any other matches. Not only that they aren't betting on the favorite.

Umea is the favorite at 1.88

Sirius has odds of 5.3

The draw has odds of 3.1

Nobody is betting on Umea. And £500 is basically bet on the draw and £500 on the Sirius win.

Irregular - yes, suspicious - no. Why?

Both teams are shockingly bad. I mean really bad. I know nothing about floorball but it seems that scottish under 12's girls team for floorball (and we don't play floorball) could beat both of these teams blindfolded.

So essentially for 2 very bad teams and the favorites having really short odds, why would you bet on them.

Can't really blame somebody for sticking a punt on the draw and the sirius win. seems like good value.

who will win, don't know, don't care. at least it's not suspicious.

Reggiana v Benevento Not Suspicious

So as I was looking through my data this evening.

Red-Flag appeared.

Reggiana v Benevento.

1) Large amount of betting on this game compared to normal.

2) All the money seems to be on Reggiana, basically nothing on Benevento or the draw

3) Not much difference in form between the teams

4) Odds hugely favor Reggiana

5) Low league

This is usually the signs of something not being right in Kansas.

So what is driving this one. Well quite simply. a third of the regular team (most of the midfield and one attacker) of Benevento has the flu.

Loads a people know this and are betting on Reggiana.

Makes sense!!!

East Stirling v Montrose Part 3

Sorry to keep updating on this post.

I didn't record the data, which is annoying me.

I was looking at an odds comparison site, which seems to indicate I didn't record the odds correctly and in-fact Montrose had the odds of 1.X compared to the East Stirling odds of 4.X.

I apologize for the confusion in my previous posts as I didn't store this data and was caught up in other things.

http://blog.chrishayuk.com/2012/01/east-stirling-v-montrose-continued.html

and

http://blog.chrishayuk.com/2012/01/east-stirling-v-montrose.html

I will come back to this match as it confuses me.

The 2 questions I've still got in my head is:

1) why such a large odds difference between the 2 teams and the draw

2) why was so much money on one team to win (and which one was it because clearly my mind/eyes were playing tricks on me)

At the end of the day, which ever way it went. The numbers just don't add up.

There was too much value in the odds either way. And for some reason the crowd went for it.

Once my mind clears and if I get a hold of the previous data, I'll clear it up.

I have learned one lesson. Don't throw away data.

East Stirling v Montrose (continued)

Hahaha,

Update: see http://blog.chrishayuk.com/2012/01/east-stirling-v-montrose-part-3.html

For some reason, I got confused. I was a little more focused on what was going on in Cyprus. Let me reword what I should have written.

East Stirling is at home. Montrose is away.

We know that in general there is statistical home advantage in football. In general, i.e. home teams win more often than away teams. There is an advantage to playing at home.

Now East Stirling (home) is bottom of the league (10th position) on ten points.

Montrose is 7th in the league on 22 points.

East Stirling home record is LDWDLD and recent record for all mathces is LLLLDL

It's not great they are on 10 points after all.

Montrose's away record is DWLDDL and recent record for all matches is WLDWLD. Now this is a significantly better record but they are not exactly strong finishers.

I haven't done the math on the odds but there seemed to have been value there.

East Stirling - 1.73

Montrose - 4.8

Draw - 4.1

For a home-team sitting at the bottom of the league. The odds seems to be hugely in East Stirlings favour. They look like the favourites. Clearly they are not. Home advantage is just not that good. I would be hugely tempted to Lay East Stirling.

Now on Betfair for this game, 25,556 has been matched. A little high for a Scottish Division 3 game. I don't think this is match-fixing but severe value in odds.

Of that 25,556. 23,461 is bet on Montrose. Leaving 1,400 matched on East Stirling and 695 on the draw.

Quite simply, I believe this a a very high number of bets because the Montrose odds present huge value. East Stirling cannot be 1.73 favourites to win. Just ridiculous odds. As I said haven't done the math but that just seems mental.

You know what the really weird thing is though. East Stirling won 3-1.

This means the vast majority who saw value and bet on Montrose lost their bet. No big deal, if the game had been played x amount of times then the betters would be up (in a world of fair odds).

The question I have though is this. Why the heck were East Stirling's odds at 1.73. It still makes no sense. I have lost my data so I can't check that I didn't misread it. I will double check that in a few weeks time though. I will need to sit-down and do the math though.

Even so, the odds said an East Stirling win, the crowd said a montrose win. In the end the odds were right. But I'm still left wondering.

I will follow up some more at later date

One more thought. If East-Stirling lost. Would the bookies have claimed a data-error and voided bets. I do wonder.

Enosis Neon Paralimni and Ermis Aradippou postponed due to irregular betting patterns

Wow,

I just went online to check the result of the Enosis Neon Paralimni and Ermis Aradippou game. It seems about 3 hours ago that the Cyprus FA suspended the match due to irregular betting patterns.

http://www.incyprus.com.cy/en-gb/Top-Stories-News/4342/25256/paralimni-ermis-postponed

I am a little shocked about it to be honest. If you follow my blog / twitter you will probably notice that I got caught up a little in this last night and today.

Anyways, I am not sure the Cyprus FA made the right decision postponing the match. However I applaud them for trying to stamp it out and taking positive action.

East Stirling v Montrose

Update: see http://blog.chrishayuk.com/2012/01/east-stirling-v-montrose-part-3.html

I realize the last 2 posts were about match-fixing and suspicious betting patterns. This one isn't about suspicious betting patterns.

This is one is really a mental note for me to try and understand what is driving these odds. I haven't done the Math on this one but it doesn't make sense.

East Stirling is at home. Montrose is away.

We know that in general there is statistical home advantage in football. In general, i.e. home teams win more often than away teams. There is an advantage to playing at home.

Now East Stirling (home) is bottom of the league (10th position) on ten points.

Montrose is 7th in the league on 22 points.

East Stirling home record is LDWDLD and recent record for all mathces is LLLLDL

It's not great they are on 10 points after all.

Montrose's away record is DWLDDL and recent record for all matches is WLDWLD. Now this is a significantly better record but they are not exactly strong finishers.

I haven't done the math on the odds but there seemed to have been value there.

East Stirling - 1.73

Montrose - 4.8

Draw - 4.1

For an away team in the bottom half of the league without form for winning, the odds seems a little good. I guess I would have been tempted by the draw.

Now on Betfair for this game, 25,556 has been matched. A little high for a Scottish Division 3 game. I don't think this is match-fixing but rather someone with a strange system involving bottom of the league teams. However 25,556 is quite a high amount.

Even worse, of that 25,556. 23,461 is bet on Montrose. Leaving 1,400 matched on East Stirling and 695 on the draw.

I think maybe the draw has been over-looked here.

I wonder how this game will turn out

Some bookies are still taking bets on the Enois vs Ermis game

I can't really believe this especially after my previous post.

I still see some bookies accepting bets on this match.

Now I'm not saying it is fixed but there are irregular betting patterns.

Now SkyBet and Victor Chandler are both accepting bets on this match. Maybe they don't have irregular patterns but by allowing bets could potentially mess up some guys accumulator etc.

Even so, accepting bets on a suspicious game, risky business.

UPDATE: Skybet has now suspended betting also, well done guys.

UPDATE 2: And victor chandler has followed suit and suspended betting also. well done guys.